Win Expectancy Fun

Not sure if you guys are familiar with win probabilities, but I ran a chart for an exhibition between the Arrows and San Juan Stars. Stars won 5 to 1, but I was more interested in the win probabilities.

Here are the player totals:

San Juan

Lowry	0.304
Clark	0.120
Casey	0.073
Anderson	0.045
Boone	0.044
Loretta	0.003
Lugo	-0.002
Pena	-0.058
Pierzynski	-0.061

Arrows

Wagner	0.024
Murphy	0.004
German	0.002
Diaz	-0.002
Bellhorn	-0.005
Johnson	-0.011
Marrero	-0.016
Burke	-0.027
Duffy	-0.029
Phillips	-0.044
Gomez	-0.058
Lee	-0.152
Eldred	-0.153

Noah Lowry was the biggest factor in the win, followed by Sean Casey. Here is a chart which follows the win expantancy for San Juan play by play.

Looking Back at the 2004 Rookie Draft - Part One

The goal of all the general managers in the Seasons Past Baseball NOW (SPB NOW) is to win. Unlike other SPB leagues based in the past, the SPB NOW general manager must speculate into the future of a player. When the annual rookie draft comes along in the dead of winter, SPB NOW managers evaluate and prognosticate the future of several hundred major league ball players.

As we move into the SPB NOW’s third season, I thought it would be interesting to look back at the 2004 SPB NOW Rookie Draft with the purpose of deciding which teams did well and which teams did not. The 2004 draft was the first rookie draft in SPB NOW.

Keep in mind, the guidelines of SPB NOW, at times, force managers into making selections to fill a void in the line-up and that can effect the mentality of the manager. For example, TEAM A may be short a first baseman, and though there are several more talented players on the draft board, they select a mediocore first baseman to fill their immediate need.

That being said, in a series of articles, I will analyze the SPB – NOW 2004 Rookie Draft round by round and give my amateur commentary. My main tool for player analysis will be each player’s Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) for the 2005 MLB season, and the players estimated Mean VORP through the end of the 2010 MLB season.

2004 SPB NOW ROOKIE DRAFT – Round One

Player	TEAM	POS	VORP	MEAN VORP	PICK
Lee, Derrek	HUN	H	95.6	182.3	1
Guillen, Carlos	CAR	H	24.8	117.5	2
Mauer, Joe	TRO	H	34.7	218.2	3
Schilling, Curt	BCR	P	2.1	58.4	4
Rodriguez, Ivan	OSX	H	18.5	49.6	5
Grienke, Zack	WAT	P	-7	102.8	6
Garcia, Freddy	BRO	P	45.7	92.4	7
Carpenter, Chris	HDD	P	67.8	152	8
Wright, David	DAY	H	57.2	300	9
McPherson, Dallas	COL	H	2.5	136.9	10
Overbay, Lyle	SJS	H	23.5	57.6	11
Uribe, Juan	WAL	H	7.5	91	12
Belliard, Ronnie	MIC	H	24	58.8	13
Sledge, Terrmell	SPE	H	0.6	25.1	14
Backe, Brandon	HON	P	10.4	21.5	15
Escobar, Kelvim	LAT	P	17.2	82.4	16
Lieber, Jon	OSX	P	30.1	67.7	17
Molina, Yadier	RIP	H	-1.1	27.7	18
Penny, Brad	ECE	P	29.6	104.2	19
Matsui, Kazuo	BGB	H	-1	18.4	20
Floyd, Gavin	HUN	P	-14.9	23	21
Otsuka, Akinori	DCM	P	9.2	39.5	22
Takatsu, Shingo	BGB	H	-0.3	7.8	23
Swisher, Nick	PHP	H	6.8	93.2	24
Sizemore, Grady	ECE	H	44.2	191.2	25

#1 Derrek Lee – Huntsville Hardballers – The Hardballers received instant dividends with Derrek Lee, as well securing a first baseman for the next several seasons. Lee has the highest 2005 VORP of any 1^st round draft pick, along with the 4^th highest Mean VORP. What a shame the Huntsville franchise is no longer with us.

#2 Carlos Guillen – Carolina Crush – The selection of the often injured Guillen can be seen as questionable. Yet, keep in mind, the Crush most likely were filling a void at shortstop. Guillen fizzled in 2005, posting a 24.8 VORP, but could have some staying power, if he stays healthy.

#3 Joe Mauer – Troy Haymakers – Good hitting catchers are a rare commodity and in SPB Now, an everyday catcher frees up players on the 25 man roster. Mauer was the best young catcher in the 2004 draft and the Haymakers were smart in selecting him. His VORP for 2005 was not the stuff of an MVP, but his 5 year outlook sure looks nice.

#4 Curt Schilling – Bay City Rollers – Win Now. That must have been the Roller’s prime directive going into the draft, because this pick was a poor one. The man with the bloody sock may have helped in the 2004 SPB NOW season, but the Rollers did not win their division and were disband.

#5 Ivan Rodriguez – Oneida Silver Sox – Joe Mauer was gone, so the Silver Sox locked up a solid catcher in Rodriguez and won their division in 2004. His 2005 MLB season was lackluster and his five year future is bleak. I hope Oneida enjoyed Pudge last year, because his skills will be diminishing quickly.

#6 Zack Greinke – Watertown Arrows – The acquisition of rookie pitchers in the first round is always a risky move, as highlighted by the tale of Zack Grienke. All nut job jokes aside, Grienke still has a strong upside, with the third highest Mean VORP among pitchers selected in the first round.

#7 Freddy Garcia – Brooklyn Giants – A solid pick up by Brooklyn, even though the team is no longer in existence. Garcia’s numbers will tail off in the next few years, but Garcia would tighten up the tail-end of any SPB-NOW rotation.

#8 Chris Carpenter - Houma Devil Dogs – A steal at number eight for the Devil Dogs. Do you think Watertown would like to take back the selection of Greinke and pick Carpenter instead? Houma will have a stud for the 2005 SPB NOW season, and if Mean VORP estimates are correct, he will be a stud for years to come.

#9 David Wright – Dayton Dynamos – How many of SPB NOW general managers would trade just about any of their players for third baseman David Wright? If the future is the key to a draft, David Wright was the best player available. He will be solid for Dayton in 2005 and for years and years to come. Arguably, the best pick in the draft, considering Wright was selected 9^th.

#10 Dallas McPherson – Colorado Grizzlies – A poor pick for a franchise trying to rebuild. One has to wonder what Colorado’s immediate would hold, if McPherson, highly regarded at the time of the draft, was selected 9^th by Dayton and then Wright was selected 10^th by Colorado. While his mean VORP over the next five years is solid at 136.9 (seventh best in the first round), injuries and roster moves by his MLB team (Anaheim Angels), make his future less than bright.

#11 Lyle Overbay – San Juan Stars – I have to diss myself here. What the hell was I thinking? I can really kick myself in the ass when I think that I could have had Ryan Howard or Grady Sizemore, instead of Lyle.

#12 Juan Uribe – Waldo Peppers – A good pick by Waldo. Once you get past the top ten, finding a star is difficult. Uribe should hold down shortstop for Waldo during the next few years.

#14 Ronnie Belliard – Michigan Tigers – Same as Uribe, a solid player for the next few years. Sure we can slap Grady Sizemore in the face of each and every manager who picked below #9, but hey, who knew!

#15 Terrmell Sledge – Speedway Sparkplugs – Ouch! .6 VORP and 25.1 over the next 5 MLB seasons. Sledge has been traded to the Waldo Peppers since the 2004 draft. In return for Sledge and Sun Woo Kim, the Sparkplugs received Rodrigo Lopez and Jeff Cirrillio.

#16 Brandon Backe – Honolulu Sharks – The first relief pitcher selected in the 2004 draft. Backe was excellent during the 2005 MLB season and should have a few good years. A solid, if not stellar, selection by the Sharks.

#17 Jon Lieber - Onieda SilverSox – A pretty good pick late in the draft. Lieber will help Oneida contend once again in 2005 and could be useful in a few more seasons.

#18 Yadir Molina – Rip City Highlanders – A negative VORP for 2005 and a limited five-year future. Could have been the worst pick in the first round, but the worst is yet to come!

#19 Brad Penny – East Coast Extreme – Not a bad pick, but the East Coast Extreme are no more!

#20 Kazuo Matsui – Bowling Green Buskers – The Buskers may have the Championship in 2004, but Matsui sure will not help them in the future.

#21 Gavin Floyd – Huntsville Hardballers – The Hardballers sure knew what to do with the #1 pick, but when it got down to the end of the first round, they sure fouled it up. Gavin Floyd had the worst season, according to VORP numbers, during the 2005 MLB season and his future is limited.

#22 Akinori Otsuka – Dodge City Marshalls – A solid addition to the Marshalls’ bullpen. Looks like a winning pick, when you consider the two stinkers at 21st and 20th.

#23 Shingo Takatsu – Bowling Green Buskers – I hope Bowing Green enjoyed their Championship in 2004.

#24 Nick Swisher – Palos Hills Pitvipers – An excellent steal for the Pitvipers. With the 24^th selection in the first round, the Vipers locked up the player with the 11^th highest Mean VORP for the next five years. Excellent, Excellent, Excellent!

#25 Grady Sizemore – East Coast Extreme – What a shame the Extreme are no longer with us. With the final pick in the first round, the Extreme stole Grady Sizemore. His 2005 campaign was solid, and his future is brighter than most of the other draft picks.

NEW FACE: Edwin Encarnacion

Going into the 2005 Seasons Past Baseball NOW (SPB NOW) Draft, the San Juan Stars were looking for one thing in their first round selection: OFFENSE.

Enter Edwin Encarnacion.

Selected number thirteen by San Juan, Encarnacion is the young right-handed power hitter which the Stars hope will be holding down third base for years to come.

"Months ago, as an organization, we focused on improving our offense and that is where our focus was for the first round. The pickings were slim for talented young hitters, but luckly, we were able to pick-up Edwin at thirteen. Andy Marte and Prince Fielder were drafted ahead of Edwin, but I really believe he can challenge both of those young players in terms of potential," said San Juan GM Ricardo Lois.

A few months back the Stars dealt their third baseman of the last two seasons Edgardo Alfonzo (along with relief pitcher Michael MacDougal) for Habana Industriales' third baseman Aaron Boone. While Boone maybe the everyday third baseman for 2005, he can best be described as a stop gap with Encarnacion being groomed for the full-time role in 2006 and beyo0nd.

Edwin, who recently celebrated his twenty-third birthday, has the potential to be a 30 homerun hitter in the very near future. As for 2005, Edwin will have to accept the role of back-up to Boone and occasional pinch hitter. During the six years he spent as a minor leaguer and below you can find some of his career minor league statistics.

607 AB, .290 AVG, 65 HR, .802 OPS

A short stint with the Cincinnati Reds in 2005 Edwin posted the following line:

211 AB, .232 AVG, 9 HR, .744 OPS

Scot Shields named Stars' Capitan!

The San Juan Stars named closer Scot Shields as the first Captain in the franchises history. Selected in Round 5b of the Seasons Past Baseball - Now Inaugural Draft, Shields has been a member of the Stars since the franchise's inception.

On a team that has gone through a major upheaval during the off-season, Shields is one of the few main stays in a clubhouse full of new faces and personalities.

Shields welcomes the role of captain.

"It is an honor and privilege to be named Captain of the San Juan Stars. We have not given our fans much to cheer about during the past two seasons, but we want to turn this thing around. If that means I need to go and pitch every single night, that is what I will do. As a team, we need to get out there and get at it, every single night." said Shields.

San Juan may have one of the deepest bullpens in SPB-Now and Shields figures to be the closer. Last year Shields posted a record of 6 wins, 3 losses, and 22 saves as the Star's closer. During the 2003 season Shield split his time between starting and relieving.

While the team is clearly re-tooling itself for a future Championship run, Shields does not rule out contention in 2005. "Management has made a lot of moves and I believe we are stronger team. We have everyday players at each position and some exciting young players like Edwin [Encarnacion] and Wily [Mo Peña] who can spot start this year. Our starting five is solid with Schmidt [Jason], Noah [Lowry], Birdie [Paul Byrd], and Victor [Zambrano]. If those guys give us a solid five or six innings, the bullpen can take over. We have the deepest pen in the game."

Wily Mo and Jason Schmidt To San Juan!

The winds of change continue to sweep thru San Juan, as Dominican slugger Wily Mo Peña and American pitcher Jason Schmidt join the revamped Stars. Peña and a 2nd Round Draft pick were dealt to San Juan from the Speedway Sparkplugs in exchange for ace Jon Garland, while Schmidt came in a deal that sent pitching prospects Anthony Reyes and Chuck James to the Colorado Grizzlies. The trade will be offically announced once the on-going Seasons Past Baseball Phase II draft is complete.

"Wily Mo is a young player with the potential to put up big power numbers. We have a fine outfield, but lack power. Jon Garland has been a fixture for San Juan as our ace, but Wily should give us a boost this season and even more so in future seasons," said San Juan Stars G.M. Ricardo Lois.

Garland's departure was suprising, as he has been the backbone of San Juan's starting five during the last two season.

Lois continued, "With the departure of Garland we welcome out new ace Jason Schmidt. Reyes and James will be fine pitchers in the future, but we need someone to replace the loss of Garland. All and all, I think this is a positive move for the San Juan Stars."

Wily Mo will be a part-time player at best during 2005, but San Juan is gambling on his future production. "He will fill in for Garret Anderson and Casey Blake this year, but I fully expect him to be a full-time player for 2006. When we traded Pat Burrell late last year, we have been actively looking for someone to replace him and we have found our man. While we build a contender here in San Juan for 2006, I think 2005 will full of pleasant suprises," said the San Juan G.M.